Saturday, January 26, 2013

VIX during 2004-2007

While a $VIX under is associated with excellent returns in $SPX, it is not accurate to say that intermediate periods of time will not see solid sell-offs. 

For example, $VIX was sub-20 from 2004-07. 2004 was a dog year for $SPX, the other years were very good. Note, however, that $VIX would occasionally 'burp' 50-80% higher during that period, and $SPX would decline more 4-7% for 1-4 months. The notion that this was a period of consistent low volatility is wrong