Friday, February 8, 2013

Weekly Market Summary

Our overall market view remains positive. The trend is strong: for the 11th week out of the last 12, a majority of indices/sectors closed >13ema. This week: all 4 indices and 9 of 9 sectors.

Two cracks are starting to form in trend and breadth, however. Several ex-US markets are now <20-dma and diverging with the US indices. Within breadth, $NYMO is struggling at the zero line and $NYSI is diverging. This is just like February 2012. $NYHL is also diverging, moving lower while indices move higher. These divergences can persist for a month or so. But, unless corrected, these are likely to be late stage signals.

Sentiment and macro expectations remain the main headwinds.